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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/16 11:09

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Wheat and corn lead firmer trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 135 lower. The dollar index is 
400 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply 
higher with crude up $6.00. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed 
with gold $10.00 higher.


   Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher with buying building during the day session. 
Weather remains a short-term non-issue with higher temps and wetter weather to 
the north before trending drier. Corn basis should start to see more pressure 
with harvest underway in more areas. The expected ethanol policy announcements 
have yet to come this week with hints towards larger quotas to offset waivers, 
with blender margins seeing a big boost from the the jump in unleaded this a.m, 
and ethanol futures 2 cents higher. Weekly crop progress should show steady 
conditions with some catch-up in maturity with the warmer weather. The weekly 
export inspections remained soft at 421,083 metric tons. On the December 
contract, support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above 
trade at 3.77. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade initially moving higher, 
but failing to hold above $9.00 again. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 70 
to 80 points higher. Crush margins remain positive overall with meal testing 
$300 a ton again overnight before fading. The positive export story needs China 
coming forward as U.S. export competitiveness improves on the world market with 
active bookings off the PNW the last few days with 256,000 metric tons on the 
daily wire today. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American 
currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer. Weekly crop progress 
should show steady conditions, and some gains in maturity, with export 
inspections disappointing at 666,490 metric tons. On the November chart we are 
have support at the 50-day at $8.84 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.91, with 
resistance the 200-day at 9.15. 


   Wheat trade has found better buying at 2 to 8 cents higher with Kansas City 
leading at midday with spillover support and seasonal action. The Kansas 
City/Chicago spread is at 81, back at the high end of the range. The corn/HRW 
spread is tight, hanging around the 34 cent area, starting to narrow again. 
Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the 
business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed 
competitiveness improving again. Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch. 
Weekly crop progress should show spring wheat harvest near the end, with winter 
wheat planting starting to get underway soon. The weekly export inspections 
were rangebound at 459,258 metric tons. The December Kansas City chart support 
is at the 20-day at $3.99 3/4, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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