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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/22 11:01

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Broadly lower trade to start the week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 30 lower. The dollar 
index is 10 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with 
crude 0.30 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold 0.80 higher.


   Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade going back to test 
support coming out of the weekend with a cold front bringing rains to many. 
Warmer temps look to return later in the week but nothing extreme. Ethanol 
margins will remain tight with plentiful supply and summer driving season 
coming to an end and ethanol futures just above $1.45 a gallon. Harvest should 
be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE 
U.S., with mixed world conditions and plentiful feed wheat available. Basis has 
started to moderate in some areas as well, with intramonth spreads firmer this 
morning. Weekly export inspections were soft at 438,045 metric tons. Weekly 
crop progress should show steady conditions with maturity gaining but still 
behind normal. On the September nearby chart, support is at the 50-day at $4.27 
which we are just below at midday with the 100-day below that at $4.03, with 
resistance the 10 and 20-day at $4.36.


   Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents lower with trade fading back from the trade 
optimism gains from Friday at midday. Meal is 1.50 to 2.50 lower, and oil is 15 
to 25 lower. World export demand remains slow, with the real still cheap as it 
has been unable to sustain gains vs. the dollar. Weather will come into focus 
more as we head towards August and podfill season with weekly crop progress 
expected to show steady conditions, and maturity gaining a little. Weekly 
export inspections were soft at 559,542 metric. The September chart support is 
the 50-day at 8.82, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.96 which we are 
holding at midday, with the 20-day the next round at $9.00, which we are right 
at overnight, with 200-day at $9.16 the next level up.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row 
crops yet again. The Kansas City/Chicago spread has narrowed slightly 
overnight. The corn/HRW spread is wider as well. The warmer weather should 
allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch for winter wheat with 
spring wheat just around the corner, while Europe makes progress with good 
yields in France, while the Black Sea and Russia continues to see mixed yields 
as harvest rolls on. The dollar is just below 97 on the index with firmer 
action to open the week. Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 
300,000 to 450,000 metric ton range. Weekly crop progress should put winter 
wheat harvest around 72-75% complete, with spring wheat conditions steady and 
heading closing in on 90%. The September Kansas City chart support is the 
recent low at $4.31 with the first resistance the 10-day at $4.45, with the 
100-day at $4.50 the next round up.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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